| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Austin Peay | 14-34 | 1166.6 | +0.0 | 1166.6 | 12.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Wisconsin | 10-42 | 1166.6 | -6.3 | 1160.3 | 9.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Nevada | 14-13 | 1160.3 | +48.7 | 1209.0 | 50.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Marshall | 28-42 | 1209.0 | -11.9 | 1197.1 | 10.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 16-24 | 1197.1 | -26.9 | 1170.2 | 38.8% |
| 8 | Oct 8 2025 | L | Missouri State | 20-22 | 1170.2 | -16.9 | 1153.3 | 15.3% |
| 10 | Oct 22 2025 | L | Delaware | 28-31 | 1153.3 | -11.0 | 1142.3 | 17.0% |
| 11 | Oct 29 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 21-24 | 1142.3 | -13.4 | 1128.9 | 12.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Florida International | 30-56 | 1128.9 | -39.1 | 1089.8 | 38.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 26-42 | 1089.8 | -4.6 | 1085.2 | 7.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 31-17 | 1085.2 | +62.8 | 1148.0 | 20.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 31-24 | 1148.0 | +57.1 | 1205.1 | 40.1% |